October 16, 2026 REC Summary

 October 16, 2026 REC Summary

The Revenue Estimating Conference (“REC”) met Friday (10.16.26) as part of their standard
schedule of meetings to estimate future state revenues. REC members Kraig Paulsen (Gov.’s
Appointee), Jennifer Acton (LSA), and Jeff Plagge (Public Member) serve on the three-member
panel. A summary of the information discussed during the meeting is below, along with the linked
spreadsheet distributed at the meeting that contains more granular revenue information.

Summary:
FY 2026 (began July 1, 2025): Friday’s REC Actual for FY26 was higher than the March 2026
REC estimate by $196.4 million. Net receipts for FY26 was $8,307.5 billion, which was $631.7
million (-7.1%) less than FY25 actual revenues.

FY 2027 (begins July 1, 2026): Friday’s REC estimate for FY27 is higher than the March 2026
REC estimate by $66.0 million. The REC now estimates net receipts for FY27 will be $8,537.6
billion, which is $230.1 million (2.80%) more than the REC's FY26 actual revenues.

FY 2028 (begins July 1, 2027): Friday’s REC estimate for FY28 is higher than the March 2026
REC estimate by $113.2 million. The REC now estimates net receipts for FY28 will be $8,830.4
billion, which is $292.8 million (3.40%) more than the REC’s estimate for FY27.

General Comments from the REC Regarding Factors Impacting Estimates:
● Iowa’s unemployment rate slightly decreased from 3.4% to 3.2%; and the national
unemployment rate has reduced slightly year over year from 4.4% to 4.2%.
● Affordability continues to be an issue for retail consumers and homebuyers. Consumer
spending remains flat and retail sales are down and tariffs continue to drive price
increases.
● Income growth rate is stagnant, and the personal savings rate has reduced to below pre-
pandemic levels. Consumer confidence dropped 6.7% since August. Gas and utility prices
remain high, which over time will impact discretionary spending.
● In agriculture, the Iowa agriculture economy has been stressed but remains stable while
manufacturing has seen an uptick and the private sector has continued to invest in Iowa
manufacturing.
● High diesel prices and a wet fall have negatively impacted farmers.
● Higher interest rates have impacted housing activity with fewer housing starts and home
purchases. Additionally, those with ARMs being recalculated this year are feeling the
pinch.