Government Relations Update 6.17.26
By: R.G. Schwarm, Matthew H. McKinney & Douglas E. Gross
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With Iowa’s primary elections and state party conventions concluded, the political landscape shifts entirely to the November general election. To help you track key battlegrounds, our team has analyzed the latest June voter registration data. The accompanying chart highlights the most competitive races based on raw registration numbers and percentage margins. Over the past three months, narrowing registration gaps across the state signal an increasingly competitive cycle.
The raw data reveals several interesting dynamics in key districts:
- Iowa House: Out of the top 20 closest races as measured purely by voter registration totals, 13 involve incumbents and the top five districts each have less than a 500 voter registration difference. The closest (by a percentage of 2.17%) is District 73 where a Democrat incumbent (E. Wilson) serves in an area where Republicans enjoy a slim 277 voter registration advantage over Democrats. In another unique district, the Republican incumbent in House District 99 (M. Rinker) is defending his seat where Democrats currently hold an even slimmer 248 voter registration advantage over Republicans. On average, there are roughly 32,000 residents in each House district.
- Iowa Senate: Eight of the top 10 closest Senate races as measured by voter registration totals feature incumbents. Notably, while in the House there are seven districts where the registration percentage difference between Democrats and Republicans is less than 5%, not a single Senate district falls below 5% (the closest being District 37, M. Donahue, where there is a 5.36% difference with Democrats holding a 1,291 voter registration advantage). In Senate Districts 1 (C. Drey) and 35 (M. Zimmer), Democratic incumbents are defending seats where Republicans currently hold the voter registration lead (1,517 and 4,238 respectively). Keep in mind, on average, there are roughly 65,000 residents in each Senate district.
Interestingly, several highly-competitive districts (as measured purely by voter registration numbers) currently involve uncontested seats this cycle:
- House: Among the 20 House districts with the narrowest registration margins, five Democrats are running unopposed. Of those five districts, in Districts 73 (E. Wilson) and 27 (K. Judge), Republicans hold a voter registration advantage (217 and 1,372 respectively).
- Senate: In the Senate, out of the 25 Senate seats on the ballot this year, 11 have no major-party challenger (five Republicans and six Democrats running unopposed).
Looking briefly at Iowa’s congressional districts, Republicans currently hold a voter registration lead in all four districts. In three districts, the registration gap is under 30,000 voters, representing a 7% to 9.95% margin.
Overall, many races are becoming increasingly competitive as voter registration margins have narrowed in many districts over the past several months. As November nears, our team will continue to share updates, including additional insight regarding fundraising amounts, cash on hand, voter registration changes, and more. Please don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions about any of these races or the upcoming elections generally.
Key
|
Red |
Districts where Republicans lead in active voter registration contain cells that are highlighted in red. The “Registration Difference D&R” shows the GOP voter advantage. |
|
Blue |
Districts where Democrats lead in active voter registration contain cells that are highlighted in blue. The “Registration Difference D&R” shows the Democratic voter advantage. |
|
"Incumbent" |
Any candidates that are incumbents seeking re-election are noted as incumbents next to their party affiliation. |
Governor
|
Candidates |
No Party |
Democrat |
Republican Active |
% Difference R&D |
Reg. Difference R&D |
|
Zach Lahn (R) v. Rob Sand (D) |
588,009 |
500,432 |
694,349 |
16.23% |
193,917 |
Congress - House of Representatives
|
District |
Candidates |
No Party |
Democrat |
Republican Active |
% Difference R&D |
Reg. Difference R&D |
|
1 |
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Incumbent) v. Christina Bohannan (D) |
158,254 |
135,953 |
161,765 |
8.67% |
25,812 |
|
2 |
Joe Mitchell (R) v. Lindsay James (D) |
156,668 |
132,773 |
162,106 |
9.95% |
29,333 |
|
3 |
Zach Nunn (R-Incumbent) v. Sarah Trone Garriott (D) |
145,231 |
141,332 |
163,019 |
7.13% |
21,687 |
|
4 |
Chris McGowan (R) v. Dave Dawson (D) |
127,856 |
90,374 |
207,459 |
39.31% |
117,085 |
State Senate
|
District |
Candidates |
No Party |
Democrat |
Republican Active |
% |
Reg. Difference R&D |
|
37 |
Randy Marzen (R) v. Molly Donahue (D-Incumbent) |
13,905 |
12,688 |
11,397 |
5.36% |
1,291 |
|
1 |
Christopher Prosch (R) v. Catelin Drey (D-Incumbent) |
7,664 |
7,393 |
8,910 |
9.31% |
1,517 |
|
21 |
John Hollinrake (R) v. Heather Matson (D) |
15,392 |
12,553 |
15,698 |
11.13% |
3,145 |
|
41 |
Kerry Gruenhagen (R-Incumbent) v. Tom Wieck (D) |
13,284 |
9,934 |
12,462 |
11.29% |
2,528 |
|
49 |
Cynthia Mensendick (R) v. Cindy Winckler (D- Incumbent) |
11,653 |
10,921 |
7,802 |
16.66% |
3,119 |
|
47 |
Scott Webster (R- Incumbent) v. Nikhil Wagle (D) |
15,637 |
10,506 |
15,122 |
18.01% |
4,616 |
|
35 |
Joe Stutting (R) v. Mike Zimmer (D- Incumbent) |
13,883 |
9,258 |
13,496 |
18.63% |
4,238 |
|
25 |
No (R) Challenger v. Herman Quirmbach (D-Incumbent) |
11,551 |
10,911 |
6,910 |
22.45% |
4,001 |
|
31 |
No (R) Challenger v. Timi Brown Powers (D) |
8,892 |
11,381 |
7,072 |
23.35% |
4,309 |
|
39 |
No (R) Challenger v. Liz Bennett (D- Incumbent) |
11,172 |
12,803 |
7,281 |
27.49% |
5,522 |
State House
|
District |
Candidates |
No Party |
Democrat |
Republican Active |
% Difference R&D |
Reg. Difference R&D |
|
73 |
No (R) Challenger v. Elizabeth Wilson (D-Incumbent) |
7,486 |
6,245 |
6,522 |
2.17% |
277 |
|
99 |
Matthew Rinker (R-Incumbent) v. Jennifer Kirkman (D) |
5,964 |
5,516 |
5,268 |
2.30% |
248 |
|
80 |
No (R) Challenger v. Aime Wichtendahl (D-Incumbent) |
6,760 |
6,542 |
6,121 |
3.32% |
421 |
|
59 |
Christian Hermanson (R- Incumbent) v. Jacob Welper (D) |
6,505 |
5,235 |
5,715 |
4.38% |
480 |
|
81 |
Dillon Fillion (R) v. Daniel Gosa (D-Incumbent) |
6,460 |
5,544 |
5,076 |
4.41% |
468 |
|
44 |
No (R) Challenger v. Larry McBurney (D-Incumbent) |
5,755 |
6,814 |
6,217 |
4.58% |
597 |
|
40 |
Bill Gustoff (R-Incumbent) v. Heather Sievers (D) |
6,782 |
5,890 |
6,504 |
4.95% |
614 |
|
43 |
Nicole Hasso (R) v. Jill Alesch (D) |
6,618 |
6,585 |
7,286 |
5.05% |
701 |
|
75 |
No (R) Challenger v. Drew Stensland (D) |
5,975 |
5,993 |
5,399 |
5.21% |
594 |
|
52 |
David Blom (R-Incumbent) v. Mike Tupper (D) |
4,734 |
4,357 |
4,935 |
6.22% |
578 |
|
1 |
Josh Steinhoff (R) v. Shawn Olorundami (D) |
3,463 |
3,608 |
3,184 |
6.24% |
424 |
|
100 |
Blaine Watkins (R-Incumbent) v. Matthew Morhrfeld (D) |
5,597 |
5,027 |
5,700 |
6.27% |
673 |
|
72 |
Jennifer Smith (R-Incumbent) v. Matt Robinson (D) |
5,342 |
6,865 |
5,983 |
6.86% |
882 |
|
31 |
Kevin DuBay (R) v. Mary Madison (D-Incumbent) |
6,117 |
7,194 |
6,245 |
7.06% |
949 |
|
39 |
Troy Clark (R) v. Nate Boulton (D) |
5,251 |
5,864 |
5,004 |
7.61% |
860 |
|
69 |
Tom Determann (R-Incumbent) v. Mandy Meier (D) |
6,613 |
4,833 |
5,689 |
8.14% |
856 |
|
98 |
Nathan Ramker (R) v. Andrew Fitzgerland (D) |
6,083 |
5,063 |
4,243 |
8.81% |
820 |
|
42 |
Heather Stephenson (R) v. Amy Tagliareni (D) |
6,896 |
5,914 |
7,094 |
9.07% |
1,180 |
|
27 |
No (R) Challenger v. Kenan Judge (D-Incumbent) |
9,002 |
6,691 |
8,063 |
9.30% |
1,372 |
|
20 |
Keith Jones (R) v. Eric Armstrong (D) |
4,337 |
3,931 |
4,809 |
10.05% |
878 |
