It's Election Day in Iowa, and for the first time in nearly 60 years, both the governor's office and a U.S. Senate seat are up for grabs. To prepare you for tonight, attached are two resources for your election night watch party. First, our final 2026 Iowa Election Analysis, which has the latest ratings, polls, money, and early-vote numbers. Second, our two-page Election Night Scorecard, making it easier for you to identify the most competitive races and monitor the overall impact.
Final 2026 Iowa Election Analysis
Election Night Scorecard
Given we've been tracking these races for months, we thought you might enjoy these five takeaways:
- Iowa's 2026 early vote has already blown past 2022’s. As of the Secretary of State's 8 a.m. November 2 report, 464,216 Iowans had returned an absentee or early ballot. That's about 92,600 more (25%) than all the early and absentee ballots cast in 2022, and it doesn't yet count ballots cast or received on Monday, the final day of in-person early voting. Mailed ballots still count if they reach the county auditor by 8 p.m. tonight, when polls close. Democrats lead returned ballots statewide by about 57,000, but Republican returns are up 28% over their 2022 early-vote total, compared with 14% for Democrats, and Republicans lead returns in the 4th District by about 8,700.
- The three most expensive legislative races are all in the Iowa Senate. Counting direct campaign activity and in-kind support such as party-paid mail and ads, the costliest of those races from July 15 through October 27 was Senate District 47 (Bettendorf), Sen. Scott Webster (R) vs. Nikhil Wagle (D), with $1.7 million raised and $1.9 million spent. Next were SD 35 (Clinton), Joe Stutting (R) vs. Sen. Mike Zimmer (D), at $1.5 million raised and $1.5 million spent, and SD 21 (Ankeny), John Hollinrake (R) vs. Heather Matson (D), at $1.4 million raised and $1.5 million spent.
- Iowa hasn't seen this since 1968. With Gov. Kim Reynolds and Sen. Joni Ernst both stepping aside, Iowa will have a new governor and a new U.S. senator in January. The last time this happened, Gov. Harold Hughes (D) won the open Senate seat and Republican Robert Ray won the open governorship.
- The governor's race has drawn more than $60 million in spending since mid-July. Counting direct campaign activity and reported in-kind support, from July 15 through October 27 Zach Lahn (R) raised $22.9 million and spent $23.1 million, and Rob Sand (D) raised $23.1 million and spent $39.7 million. Together, the two campaigns raised $46 million and spent nearly $63 million in 15 weeks.
- The closest races on paper are three Iowa House seats, and No Party voters may decide them. Among the 22 legislative races we track, the narrowest gaps between registered Republicans and Democrats, as a share of active voters, are HD 99 (Burlington), Rep. Rinker (R) vs. Kirkman (D), at D+1.4 points (235 voters); HD 59 (Mason City), Rep. Hermanson (R) vs. Welper (D), at R+2.2 (384 voters); and the open HD 43 (Johnston), Hasso (R) vs. Alesch (D), at R+2.5 (523 voters). No Party voters make up 30% to 36% of each district, and in HD 99 and HD 59 they outnumber both parties.
We’ll have a full recap for you tomorrow morning. In the meantime, Go Vote!🗳️